Part of what makes fantasy baseball, in particular, entertaining is the fact that you need to find value where others may find nothing of interest. The best explanation is that you simply can not have 12 first-round picks to make up your team (and if you can, let me know what league you are in). What if, in a Moneyball-style way, you could take a 1st rounder and recreate them in the 9th and 10th rounds? Would you do it? I know I would.
Let us start with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., especially since he is fresh on my mind from the other day. What are his projected statistics, or at least ones that matter from a fantasy baseball perspective? Using Steamer, which gives a projection based on players reaching over 600 plate appearances, Vlad Jr. has solid numbers coming his way in 2025. Specifically, Guerrero Jr. is projected 33 home runs, 104 rbi’s and a .297 batting average. In addition to those stats, he also is projected to score 98 runs and steal 5 bases.
Now, where does this player exist outside of the first round?
1.) Mark Vientos, NYM
Vientos was a postseason hero for the Met’s Cinderella run and figures to factor heavily in 2025 for New York. Currently listed at 91 ADP in a RotoGraph ranking, a 71-pick drop-off from Vlad in that same ranking. Statistically, where are we lacking?
Home Runs: Vientos has the advantage with 34 to Vlad’s 33
RBIs: Guerrero has the advantage with 104, to Vientos’s 94
Runs: Guerrero has the advantage with 98, to Vientos’s 83
Average: Guerrero has the advantage with a .297, to Vientos’s .249
Steals: Guerrero has the advantage with 5, to Vientos’s 1
What does this all mean? Yes, Vlad is projected to have a better year, but at what cost? The batting average is significant, but the counting numbers are not. The important thing to keep in mind is not that you are drafting Mark Vientos in place of Vlad, but that you are drafting a different superstar and getting a light beer version of him in a much later round. At Guerrero’s ADP of 16, you could get someone who brings a much different skill set to your team (in addition to some of Vladimir’s impact.)
To be continued…
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